Philosophy - Different Kinds of Guesses

There are my own views after studying the basics of epistemology (the study of Knowledge.)

In epistemology, guesses can be labelled and classified.

1. A Priori guesses.

It seems slightly counterintuitive that there can be A Priori guesses because the definition of A Priori is knowledge that we are certain of and don't have to add additional thought to. However, the example of picking between two cards can illustrate how guessing can also be a form of knowing. There are two cards face down. One is the Ace of Spades and the other the Ace of Diamonds. We know this because we are told this. We are then asked to pick one and guess which one we will pick. We know the cards, we know the situation. We don't need to blindly guess what we'll see and we don't need to search for further information to make an educated guess. We know it will be either the Spade or the Diamond. It's a simple matter of flipping the card. The competence factor is 100%. We know what's going on absolutely. This is the most basic criteria for a guess. It's a simple matter of either/or.

2. Limited A Posteriori guesses. We need more information to make our choices but there is a limited, small, absolute amount of data we can learn. Blackjack is an example. Two cards aren't in play for our guess; all 52 in the deck are. If we play the game, we need to know how many cards are in a standard deck, the suits and the numbers before we can play competently (and, of course, the rules of the game.) We can make our guesses even more competently if there are several different players at the table. Whatever their up cards are, we can eliminate from our betting consideration. With the two card example, we have complete knowledge. With blackjack, we need to know a little more to be successful but JUST a little bit more.

3. Broader A Posteriori guesses. These fall more into the category of what we consider a guess and stretches the boundaries of what educated guesses are. Criminal profilers are a good example. A serial killer is loose. The killer has killed ten white female prostitutes by strangulation, has posed the bodies and left them unburied in the woods. No fingerprints or other forensic evidence has been found at any of the murder scenes. Firstly, the demand to catch the killer makes educated guesswork necessary. There's a killer loose. We can't wait until the killer makes a mistake because someone else might get killed. The idea that inferences should not even be attempted without data/evidence is irrelevant in this instance. If we don't have forensic evidence to identify the killer, profilers need to go on their previous knowledge of serial killers to get a basic idea and make their best guesses on how to proceed. The investigation then moves on from those guesses. That serial killers usually kill close to home makes searching for certain criminals, notably local registered sex offenders, where police work usually begins.

4. Shot in the dark guesses. A guess made with almost no data. We're told a human being has died and we're asked to guess what they died of. We don't know the age, sex or any other data about this dead individual. We can only go on our overall knowledge of conditions that lead to death. The leading cause of death is heart disease which leads to heart attacks and strokes. This is the best guess we could make. We don't have any real data. The previous example of a serial killer holds that profilers, based on their knowledge of serial killer behavior, can make firm guesses based on the simple data that the victims are strangled white female prostitutes. As serial killers nearly always kill in their own racial grouping and strangled prostitutes are pretty much always the work of men, an educated guess can be that the killer is a white man. With our shot in the dark guess, we don't even have that much. If we're knowledgeable and sensible, our best guess is to say our dead person has died of a heart attack. Cancer also ranks high on the list of what people die of so that would also be a solid guess.

5. Pure guesses. This is the absolute form of guess. You're told someone walks into a Panera in Hopkinsville, Kentucky. You're not told whether they're male or female or given any other data. You live in Utah and have never been to Kentucky or that part of the country. You're asked what the person's name is. "Uh, Bob Smith" is as good an answer as any. This pure guess is so completely improbable to get correct that it's impossible. You've never been to Kentucky and you don't know anything about people considered Southern. Other than a human being walked into a Panera, you have no information. You literally have to make something up that has no real chance of being correct.

I may add to this list as more examples of guesswork come to mind. Thank you for reading.

A line from my book: "Intake."

I like this line so I'm going to post it. A man and a woman are having sex in a hotel.

The hotel clock read 1:14 PM as the man and woman on the bed had sex. The man, 30 years old, large, lean, muscular and shaved bald, gritted his teeth hard as the naked young woman on top of him, thin to almost bony, long, dark brown hair riddled with sweat, buried her fingers, fronted by her long, carefully filed red coated fingernails, into his chest, the red paint mixing with the man’s blood and seeming to crawl up her left hand and arm sheathed in a sleeve tattoo of twisted, thorny green vines, bits of tattooed blood oozing from thorn tips like artistic violence.